The motoring industry is currently experiencing the most significant shift in automobile design and engineering since Henry Ford’s Model T.
Fossil fuels have, arguably, outstayed their welcome and electric vehicles (EVs) seem like the logical next step. The Irish government, evidenced by the 2035 ban on selling new petrol and diesel vehicles, views EVS as integral to an emissions-free future. Even the most stubborn of petrolheads will (begrudgingly) concede that a ban on fossil fuels is imminent. But, is the 2035 cut-off perhaps too much, too soon?
While EVs are pitched as the ‘green’ alternative to traditional fuels, they are not without sustainability concerns. For instance, lithium-ion batteries are the most popular battery type and contain rare earth metals such as cobalt and nickel. Although harvesting methods of such metals can vary, side effects like sulphur and acid rain are common. Demand for EVs with better range typically calls for larger batteries and more finite rare earth materials.
However, production processes are constantly evolving, and smaller more efficient battery packs will lessen this impact. Additionally, they can be easily rebuilt, repaired and even repurposed (to store domestic solar energy, for instance.) Hence, claims that end-of-life EV batteries will end up in landfills are, at best, unfounded.
Of bigger environmental concern is electricity production itself. According to the Central Statistics Office, Ireland produced just 38% of electricity via renewable means in2022. In 2020, this was 40%. While this figure will undoubtedly improve, over half of all electricity generation is detrimental to the environment.
As more motorists transition into EVs closer to 2035, increased demand for power poses a real risk of reversing progress, just to maintain supply. More sustainable batteries and electricity production will certainly be developed, but this takes time and 2035, for car manufacturers, is only around the corner.
The environmental implications of EVs are a familiar but understood area of concern. In the past year, however, the financial price of electric motoring has reared its head. EVs are cheap to run, but purchasing them is a different matter. For instance, the humble Opel Corsa can be bought with a petrol engine for just under €24,000. Fancy an electric one instead? That’ll be over €40,000.
Bob Flavin, a motoring journalist from Portlaoise, believes this is where the future of widespread electric motoring could be called into question. “The governments across Europe have lost interest because there isn’t enough money for people to buy new without a loan,” he says.
Of course, new car prices have sky-rocketed across the board post-COVID. However, residual values of EVs have come under scrutiny in recent months. The electric Corsa will likely cost £9,925 after 3 years according to What Car? research in the UK; a near 70% loss in value. Premium brands face the same problem. Porsche’s Taycan, which can retail well over £150,000, is available on Auto Trader, three years old, for under £50,000. And this trend is not UK-specific.
“The used market is tanking,” says Bob. “With sales the way they are and EVs not being purchased in the numbers we expected, there is no way to reach the 2035 targets,” he adds.
EVs are improving at such speed, electricity generation and the market cannot keep up, hence the ban was already moved from 2030 to 2035 (despite Stellantis and Ford’s dismay) and given the market’s uncertain trajectory, this may well be pushed out further.
While the automobile’s environmental impact on the planet must be curtailed, the strain felt under the current cost of living increases means fewer motorists can afford to purchase their first EVs. Additionally, second-hand values of electric cars seem to offer buyers little in the way of confidence.
To add more (sustainable) fuel to the fire, recent developments in e-fuels (renewable fuel comprised of plants and used vegetable oil) mean that EVs are not the only eco-friendly fuel choice. Five Certa petrol stations across Ireland now sell Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) which any diesel car can run on. It costs the same as traditional diesel yet is 90% cleaner. By the end of 2024, Certa pledges to introduce HVO at 10 filling stations, meaning electric cars no longer have the sustainable fuel market to themselves.
The environmental and financial cost of EVs must fall before they can become viable. Aiming to achieve this by 2035 is not impossible. But purchase prices must fall and residual values plateau if EVs are to become the norm, rather than a curiosity.