Donald Trump delivers remarks at the Friends of Ireland luncheon. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
“I think it would be cool!”
“It seems to me that one of the naturals of all time is to put them together.”
These are just two of the quotes that Donald Trump made in support of a United Ireland during his visit to Ireland on 12-13 September.
Is Donald Trump’s recent exclamations of support for a United Ireland another grandstanding motion from a President who does them (seemingly) for breakfast, or is it the start of another foreign policy switch-up for Americans to grapple with?
These quotes, and more, garnered the usual reactions of shock and surprise from the media, in another sweeping move of controversy that has been Trump’s go-to schtick since his unexpected rise to the presidency way back in 2016. Ten years on, and the statements are, it seems, bigger and more controversial than ever.
But would this particular statement on a United Ireland spark the beginnings of a major foreign policy shift for the American political establishment?
It is correct to say that the stateside political establishment has become significantly more polarised since the days when the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) was negotiated.
But still, the GFA has remained a pillar of foreign policy that Democrats and Republicans have stayed aligned on. It was Bill Clinton’s administration that brought Sinn Féin into the negotiations, and acted as a neutral broker to bring the agreement across the finish line. It was George W. Bush’s administration that pressured the IRA into decommissioning its weapons.
And it was both the first Trump administration and the Biden administration that explicitly laid it out to the UK; there would be no UK-US trade deal if Brexit negotiations even threatened Irish peace. It is not a matter of contest in the US; Irish peace and the GFA are settled policy norms stateside, and is one of the few bipartisan issues in an ever-growingly partisan Congress. So, why threaten that whole balance now?
For Trump anyway, it may be worth looking at his previous stances on Ireland to get an idea of where his heart may lie.
Back in 1995, Trump was a guest of a guest to a Friends of Sinn Féin fundraiser in New York’s Essex Hotel. While both the Sinn Féin party and Trump’s team have both since clarified that the current President never made a donation, it is still an interesting indication of his pre-Presidential views on the topic.
As well as this, Trump has been the owner of the Doonbeg golf course (now named Trump International Golf Links & Hotel) since 2014, and part of his recent visit to Ireland was to attend the Irish Open happening that weekend at Doonbeg.
The village of Doonbeg, Co. Clare, site of Trump International Golf Links and hotel. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
However, it is much more likely that Trump’s recent comments on a United Ireland are less an endorsement of Sinn Féin and the nationalist communities across Ireland, and more so a veiled attack on Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the United Kingdom and more specifically, Canada and the Commonwealth.
Canada, lead by Prime Minister Mark Carney, walked away from trade negotiations with their neighbours down south in late August, stating that the USA had “asked for too much and offered too little”.
This is just the latest in diplomatic spats between the two neighbours, with Trump previously declaring that Canada should become the 51st state, referring to Carney as “Governor Carney” and ordering government departments to refer to Lake Ontario (one of the four lakes that makes up the Great Lakes, that are shared between the USA and Canada) as “Lake America.”
As for Burnham, the 8 September announcement that the UK would be restricting trade with the Israeli-occupied West Bank settlements in Palestine sparked outrage from Tel Aviv, including the unprecedented and forced closure of the UK’s consulate in the East Jerusalem. Ten other European countries, including Ireland and France, have already or since declared similar trade restrictions.
Prime Minister Burnham is due to travel to the US on 21 September, where further talks on Israel-Palestine, Ukraine-Russia, the Iran war, the Falklands, and the recent US-UK trade deal are expected to occur.
Additionally, it was aptly-timed for Trump to bring up independence, as it was just before the leaders of Sinn Féin (Irish nationalist party), Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalist party) and the SNP (Scottish nationalist party) met for a joint declaration on their intention have each of their member states leave the United Kingdom.
It is more likely, in this case then, that Trump’s comments were less a marked shift in US foreign policy, and more so a veiled threat to Canada and the UK, as a common tactic amongst this administration to stir up controversy, confuse and distract other states, and disrupt the status quo.
Could this be the last time that Trump talks about Irish Unity? Probably not. During his visit to Ireland, he hinted that he may eventually speak on Scottish independence, and he recently stated that the US may not help the UK in any future conflicts regarding the Falklands. He has two more years in office too, and that can be a long time in politics.
Consensus would indicate that the USA is unlikely to divert from their unwavering support of the GFA anytime soon, but if there is one thing the second Trump administration has done time and time again, is dismiss expectations and subvert allies in seemingly every regard.
Either way, a United Ireland will only happen under a border poll being approved of in both the Republic and the North. Any expectations Trump may have for expediting this process this will have to stick to the rules that decades of US administrations have spent enforcing.
