By elections are a very different beast than normal elections and can often be seen as good insight into the mood of the electorate midway through a Dáil term.
The upcoming by-election in Galway West to fill the seat recently vacated by President Catherine Connolly after her election to the Áras, should be a very interesting contest.
It will serve as both an indicator of the current government’s approval rating among the electorate, but also as another test of the strength of the new “left alliance”, that emerged during the Presidential election.
So far seven candidates have announced their intention to run, with both government parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil yet to show their hand. Sinn Féin, the largest opposition party is also yet to announce their candidate.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil only secured a seat each in this five-seat constituency after last year’s general election and will both be hopeful of taking a second seat this time around.
Fianna Fáil had an especially poor campaign in 2024, where after selecting Gráinne Seoige to run as a celebrity candidate, she got just below 5% of first preference votes, under half of what her fellow party candidate John Connolly managed.
That was also largely due to former party member Noel Thomas, running as an Independent Ireland candidate, following a falling out with the party after comments he made around immigration in 2023.
He will feel that he is well placed to win this time around having just missed out on the last seat in the 2024 election by a mere 311 votes.
Fine Gael will also feel that they have a strong chance if taking a second seat in this constituency. At the time of writing, they have not yet concluded their internal selection process, with former mayor Cllr Eddie Hoare, Senator Sean Kyne, and Eoghan Gallagher the three candidates that have been nominated.
Independent Cllr Thomas Welby has also thrown his name into the ring. The long time Councillor, who was previously a member of both Fianna Fail and later the Progressive Democrats, will probably compete for votes with Thomas, who is also Connemara based.
Aontú have announced that primary school teacher Orla Nugent will contest the seat for them. The party has risen steadily in popularity in recent year, especially as more and more people become concerned with increased immigration, and the party will look to build its profile in Galway.
Then there is the “left wing parties” to consider, who are expected to use a “vote left, transfer left” strategy, after a very effective collaboration between the parties during the Presidential election campaign that ultimately saw President Connolly elected.
Whoever Sinn Féin’s candidate is will surely have a big part to play, and the party will hope to take a second seat in this constituency with Mairéad Farrell TD topping the pole in the 2024 election.
The candidate with the most unknown potential is University lecturer Sheila Garrity. She is running as an Independent and having been heavily involved in the management of President Connolly’s campaign, could be seen as her natural successor.
Labour’s City Councillor Helen Ogbu has announced her decision to run, she managed just above 3% in the last election but should benefit from the vote transfer agreement. Similarly Social Democrat candidate, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich will be another beneficiary of this voting pact and will hope to be the first TD elected for her party in Galway.
The Green Party have also announced their candidate, former City Councillor Niall Murphy. The Greens performed below Labour and the Social Democrats in 2024 and are unlikely to gain a seat here, however his transfers could be crucial in electing one of the left-leaning options.
Ultimately if there is a strong trend of transfers between these left wing candidates, there is a very good chance that at least one of them will emerge as a strong contender, however the decision by all of the parties, with People Before Profit also expected to announce a candidate shortly, could dilute their share of the vote if transfers are not properly managed.
While the Presidential election was undoubtedly a success for this strategy, that was all the parties uniting behind a single candidate. This will be the first test of their co-operation when each side has their own person in the race. Should the campaign turn into a dogfight, we may see cracks appear in the pact.
